Kimi Antonelli wins in Austin with commanding one-stop strategy

Dominance in Austin

Kimi Antonelli secured his first victory since the Spanish Grand Prix last month with a commanding win in Austin. The 20-year-old Italian drove a perfect race. While Charles Leclerc and the Red Bulls of Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar battled for second place throughout the race, Antonelli remained out of touch. Mercedes chose medium tyres for the start. This allowed Antonelli to execute a one-stop strategy while his competitors used two stops. He was more than two seconds ahead of the field by the end of the first lap and finished 16 seconds clear of Leclerc. I find the Mercedes upgrade package, which arrived two races ago in Malaysia, to be definitively quicker than the older specification. The upgrade package was initially tricky to optimise, but recent work moved it past the older specification. Antonelli’s start was excellent. He led the field through the first corner and stayed clear of the scrap between Verstappen and Leclerc. He managed to convert his choice of tyres into a race of total control. "It was the result we needed," Antonelli said. "All this time putting work on the new package and finally seeing the result was very pleasant, perfect strategy to call the one-stop."

Championship math

The win in the United States does not yet seal the championship for the Mercedes driver. Antonelli leads George Russell by 123 points, though Russell sits on 242 points in the standings. Lewis Hamilton holds third place with 241 points. Max Verstappen is fourth with 236 points, followed by Charles Leclerc with 233 points. Lando Norris has 211 points, while Oscar Piastri has 144. Isack Hadjar has 105 points, Liam Lawson has 77 points, and Pierre Gasly has 42 points. As he heads into the Mexico City Grand Prix next weekend, Antonelli only needs to ensure he does not lose more than 23 points to Russell or 24 points to Hamilton. If Russell or Hamilton do not win in Mexico City, a ninth place finish will be enough for Antonelli to clinch the title, and a tenth place finish will work if Hamilton wins. I think the math for the 20-year-old is extremely favorable. Antonelli said, "I know we are very close. We try to finish on a high and hopefully we can clinch it very soon."

Qualifying and grid penalties

Qualifying in Austin showed the Mercedes upgrade package is definitively quicker than the older specification. Lando Norris initially claimed pole position with a 1:35.029 lap, but a track limits infringement relegated him to eighth place on the grid. This promoted Antonelli to pole, his first since Belgium. Max Verstappen started second with a 1:34.214, while Isack Hadjar started third. I find the Red Bull performance underwhelming because Verstappen described the car’s handling as "tricky" after lapping 0.175s behind the leader. Charles Leclerc started fourth and Lewis Hamilton started fifth. George Russell started sixth and Oscar Piastri started seventh.

Several penalties also affect the grid. Arvid Lindblad starts 14th following a five-place penalty for a power unit component change. Liam Lawson starts ninth after Lindblad’s penalty moved him up. Gabriel Bortoleto starts last because of an 80-place grid penalty, while Franco Colapinto starts on the back row following a 10-place penalty. Fernando Alonso starts 13th after reaching Q2 despite a small fire at the rear of his Aston Martin. Esteban Ocon finished 17th after failing to make Q2. The Williams drivers, Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, qualified 19th and 20th. Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas were the slowest, qualifying 21st and 22nd respectively. Nico Hulkenberg finished 12th, while Pierre Gasly finished 14th after being dumped out of Q3 by Lawson.