Undercut versus overcut: when pitting first wins

Fresh tyres can gain time, but not always. We explain the conditions that make each move work. We use publicly available timing data and explain our method, so readers can check the reasoning rather than take it on trust.

How the undercut works

Lap times are averages of many small effects. To understand pace, we split laps into corners, straights and traction zones.

Tyre degradation is rarely linear. A compound can hold for twenty laps and then fall away within three when the thermal window closes.

Traffic distorts everything. A driver stuck in dirty air loses downforce, overheats tyres and posts lap times that hide true pace.

FormulaKite editorial note

When the overcut pays

Fuel load costs roughly a few hundredths per lap per kilogram, so stint comparisons need correcting before drawing conclusions.

• Strategy is the key factor in this section.
• Pit stops explains most of the remaining differences.
• Context from previous seasons helps judge how unusual it is.

Traffic distorts everything. A driver stuck in dirty air loses downforce, overheats tyres and posts lap times that hide true pace.

Track and tyre factors

Data never tells the full story on its own, but it does rule out a lot of narratives. Good analysis starts with what the numbers cannot support.

We use publicly available timing data and explain our method, so readers can check the reasoning rather than take it on trust.

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