Mercedes needs to outscore Ferrari by three points in Sao Paulo

Mathematical paths to the title

Mercedes needs to outscore Ferrari by three points in Sao Paulo to secure the 2026 constructors’ title. The Silver Arrows lead the championship with 630 points, which sits 126 points ahead of Ferrari’s 504 points. After Kimi Antonelli secured his first world title at the Mexico Grand Prix, Mercedes missed a chance to win the constructors’ trophy because they scored five points fewer than the Scuderia. Mercedes had its first opportunity to clinch the title in Mexico, but that required a 1-2 finish and for Ferrari to score no more than four points, which did not happen because Mercedes scored five points fewer than the Scuderia. After the weekend in Sao Paulo, a maximum of 129 points will remain available.

I look at the math and see several paths for Mercedes to clinch the ninth constructors’ trophy. Mercedes can win if both cars finish in the points and ahead of the Ferraris or if they take a 1-2, 1-3, or 1-4 finish. A 2-3 or 2-4 finish also works if Ferrari does not win. Mercedes can also clinch if both cars finish in the top five with no Ferrari on the podium, or if Antonelli or Russell finishes in the top eight and both Ferraris retire. Mercedes won 12 out of 19 grands prix this season, and they have outscored Ferrari by three points or more on 10 occasions across the opening 19 rounds.

A new era for the Silver Arrows

Toto Wolff noted that the championships with Lewis Hamilton were "absolutely incredible and rewarding." He added that he felt the team was "part of Lewis’ history" and that Hamilton remains "culturally relevant beyond Formula 1." The 2026 season is the first time Mercedes won world titles without Hamilton since 1955, with the youthful Antonelli stepping up. Wolff described Antonelli as a "refreshing" presence, noting that the driver is "still the kid that hasn’t even changed visually a lot." He mentioned trying to get hold of the driver a few weeks ago, only to find him at a water park for his birthday. Two sponsors left Mercedes after the team promoted Antonelli into Formula 1.

Antonelli will stick with number 12 next season because he is superstitious. "And also, to be honest, I’m very superstitious, and number one has never been a good number for me," Antonelli said. He explained that whenever he used the number one, things went "extremely badly." In Mexico, the Italian driver finished third behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, while Charles Leclerc finished fourth, which led to Antonelli choosing the Hamilton route over following Verstappen and Norris.