Tyre degradation explained: why stints fall off a cliff

Degradation is thermal, mechanical and chemical. We explain how each one shows up in lap times. Fuel load costs roughly a few hundredths per lap per kilogram, so stint comparisons need correcting before drawing conclusions.

Thermal degradation

Traffic distorts everything. A driver stuck in dirty air loses downforce, overheats tyres and posts lap times that hide true pace.

Data never tells the full story on its own, but it does rule out a lot of narratives. Good analysis starts with what the numbers cannot support.

Lap times are averages of many small effects. To understand pace, we split laps into corners, straights and traction zones.

FormulaKite editorial note

Mechanical wear and graining

We use publicly available timing data and explain our method, so readers can check the reasoning rather than take it on trust.

• Tyres is the key factor in this section.
• Data explains most of the remaining differences.
• Context from previous seasons helps judge how unusual it is.

Lap times are averages of many small effects. To understand pace, we split laps into corners, straights and traction zones.

Spotting the cliff early

Tyre degradation is rarely linear. A compound can hold for twenty laps and then fall away within three when the thermal window closes.

Fuel load costs roughly a few hundredths per lap per kilogram, so stint comparisons need correcting before drawing conclusions.

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